Liberal Party leadership candidate Mark Carney speaks in Edmonton, on Jan. 16.Amber Bracken/Reuters
In these times of upheaval, are we witnessing the greatest political turnaround in Canadian history?
If the Liberals were to come from being marooned at 20-plus points behind the Conservatives and in just four months elect a new leader who wins a general election, it would merit that extraordinary distinction.
They haven’t even selected their new leader yet, but several polls have them closing in on Pierre Poilievre’s populist Conservatives. Nanos has them only seven points behind, Ekos only five. With Mark Carney specified as leader, Angus Reid has them within just three; Leger, a dead heat.
With that kind momentum the unthinkable is possible. The party deemed dead at Christmas could be returned to power by early spring.
The surge might just be a blip, a temporary leap brought on by the departure of loathed leader Justin Trudeau and enthusiasm for likely replacement Mr. Carney, enthusiasm which might not last. The ideologically hardened Mr. Poilievre is a powerhouse campaigner, a rapier-tongued combatant. An avalanche of attack ads will paint the new Liberal leader in old and unsightly party colours. When the dust settles, much of the Conservative lead could be restored.
But the Liberals have reason to be cautiously hopeful. Their new leader, almost certainly Mr. Carney, comes coupled with a change in the nation’s state of mind. That change – from preoccupation with domestic woes to a fixation on a foreign threat – significantly favours them.
To counter Donald Trump’s 51st-state threat, polls show Canadians prefer Mr. Carney over the Conservative Leader. Small wonder. Mr. Carney is a global economist of stature. He helped steered Canada through the great financial crisis of 2008. He helped steer Britain through the challenge of Brexit. “My strength,” he said in a recent podcast, “is that I know how the world works.”
While Mr. Carney is tailor-made for the times, Mr. Poilievre, a parochial pugilist, is not. He has spent much of his time as Opposition Leader running down the country. With the premium now on pride and patriotism, it’s precisely the wrong image. A couple of months ago he was a great fit. Now he’s a misfit.
Angus Reid has the Poilievre unfavourability rating at 56, the favourability at only 37. Last weekend Mr. Poilievre attempted a reset, staging a popular rally in which he wrapped himself in the Canadian flag, singing the praises of the nation.
Besides losing his big juicy target that was Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Poilievre has also lost his most effective issue. The carbon tax was hurting the Liberals badly. Given the Trump menace it’s no longer such a big deal. Mr. Carney has vowed to replace the tax anyway.
Another big weapon the Conservatives had going for them following a decade of Liberal rule was the potent time-for-a-change rationale. But it’s not quite as potent now. As a centrist, a business Liberal who’s never held political office, Mr. Carney offers change. He is liked even by Stephen Harper, who wanted him in his cabinet.
While not an authoritarian Trump populist, Mr. Poilievre is still out of the populist precincts. A large number in his party have been Trump supporters. And the Trumpians in Washington, Elon Musk being a prime example, are supporters of the Conservative Leader. If, as is likely, they weigh in on Mr. Poilievre’s side in the coming election, it will hardly be helpful.
With 20 years of experience in politics compared to none for Mr. Carney, Mr. Poilievre should have a marked advantage on the hustings. The Liberal is likely to make many stumbles. But in the perception department an irony can be noticed. Rookie politician Mr. Carney has the aura of an elder statesman, seasoned and reasoned, while the guy with all the experience has a more apprentice-like, contrived look.
The key for Mr. Carney, whose Liberals will be helped by the slide of the NDP, will be to sufficiently contrast his agenda from the Trudeau decade. On point, one of his goals, he said a few days ago in a seeming rebuke of Mr. Trudeau’s wokeism, is to make things better “for white males.”
But Mr. Carney has not articulated the differences substantively enough. An Ottawa Sun editorial headline Tuesday declared “Vote Carney, Get Trudeau,” and drew pertinent comparisons.
If the Conservatives can sell that song, they’re in business. But the way the stars are aligning, it will not be easy. The way they’re aligning gives the Liberals a real chance of pulling off the biggest comeback Canadian politics has ever seen.