Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks to reporters, accompanied by other Council of the Federation members, at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, on Feb. 12.Ben Curtis/The Associated Press
Far ahead in Ontario election polls, Doug Ford has captured the wave of national pride. By authentically rejecting U.S. President Donald Trump’s presumption that our country can be bought or conquered, he has invoked the betrayal many communicate when booing the American anthem, or boycotting U.S. products at the grocery store.
His campaign slogan to “Protect Ontario” invokes themes of citizenship and duty, which resonate with me. The solutions required to address challenges now facing our country will require many of us to step up.
But beneath this slogan, I worry that the Ontario election reveals a sense of patriotism that is a mile wide and an inch deep. Most politicians compete for our vote by promising to spend more while taxing less. This political recipe is now common in elections across Canada. It regularly yields large deficits when our economy is not in recession, weakening our national readiness to manage when times get tougher, and offloading bills to our kids.
Although I know my position will be heretical to some, voters who enjoy enough financial security must actively resist the idea that our politicians owe us more for less. If we want Canada to be strong, we will best resist Mr. Trump’s threats by remembering president John F. Kennedy’s wisdom: “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.”
The two parties ahead in the Ontario polls do not ask this. Mr. Ford promises to cut gas taxes and highway tolls, while his 2024 budget promises more for medical care. Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals would cut the middle income-tax bracket and add billions for medical care beyond Mr. Ford’s budget.
The same pattern played out in B.C.’s recent election. NDP Leader David Eby promised “middle-class” tax cuts for 90 per cent of residents on the back of a budget that included the biggest single-year increase to medical spending in the province’s history. His party inched past the BC Conservatives, who promised to exempt thousands in rent or mortgage expenses from income tax, while also matching most of the NDP’s new medical-care investments.
By promising voters more for less, strategists in all major-party war rooms either judge that Canadians are selfish (which I reject), or that many of us believe cutting levies should spur economic growth to yield more revenue.
This belief is sometimes correct, but not always – especially since Canada’s taxes put us in the middle of the pack among OECD competitor countries.
Ontario’s 2024 budget is instructive. The province enjoyed a 4.1-per-cent increase in nominal GDP in 2023, higher than the 2.8 per cent predicted the year prior. Despite enjoying accelerated growth, the province’s deficit ballooned to $10-billion – down from the $200-million surplus projected the year earlier. Ontario’s deficit spiked even though spending increases were frugal by comparison with previous years.
The hope for higher revenue from lower taxes was also pervasive in the B.C. election. BC Conservative fiscal projections assumed that tax cuts could stimulate the province to enjoy 5.4-per-cent annual growth between 2024 and 2030 – well beyond the government’s current projection of 3.1 per cent. Such growth would yield, the party promised, “over $10-billion more per year for the services we need – at no cost to taxpayers.”
If only wishing made it so.
The most up-to-date Statistics Canada table about B.C. GDP starts in 1997. There are no consecutive six-year periods since 1997 when average growth rates rival the assumption in the BC Conservative platform – although someone could cherry-pick a single period between 1997 and 2007 to confirm their bias.
Not only did the past quarter-century rarely see such growth, but the years ahead will also be more challenging, because population aging causes economic drag. Growth and productivity decline when there is a smaller proportion of workers in the labour market, as is well documented across OECD countries.
This is Canada’s economic fate for the next decades, because boomers are a big demographic bulge who have mostly reached retirement.
Given that population aging will slow growth, as will tariffs, climate change, housing inequality and more, those of us who are financially secure enough must revisit what citizenship and patriotism will mean for our personal finances. It’s time to concede that habitual demands for lower taxes and higher government spending to win our vote will leave our beloved country vulnerable to a wide range of international, domestic and environmental threats.
If Canada is to remain strong and free, Canadian politics can’t be “all about me.” Let’s vote for politicians who talk about responsibility.
Dr. Paul Kershaw is a policy professor at the University of British Columbia and the founder of Generation Squeeze, Canada’s leading voice for generational fairness. He offers policy advice to governments of all party stripes, including the current federal cabinet.
